V-Lab
IGB Reit Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
2,031.42
decreased by 223.09
1 Week
2,322.25
increased by 67.74
1 Month
2,868.06
increased by 613.55
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 21, 2012 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7321 | 7.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1226 | 6.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7744 | 21.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.2891 | -3.78*** |
| γ2 | 0.2527 | 2.02** |
| γ3 | 0.1978 | 1.89* |
| γ4 | -0.3904 | -4.60*** |
| γ5 | 0.4431 | 5.27*** |
Persistence:
0.897
Half-life:
6 days
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