IGB Reit Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4,512.61
increased by 1,692.89
1 Week
3,216.83
increased by 397.11
1 Month
2,088.60
decreased by 731.12
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 21, 2012 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7326 | 7.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1216 | 6.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7771 | 21.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.2880 | -3.69*** |
| γ2 | 0.2482 | 1.94* |
| γ3 | 0.2040 | 1.91* |
| γ4 | -0.3909 | -4.56*** |
| γ5 | 0.4253 | 5.09*** |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
6 days
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