V-Lab
Gecina SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
496.95
increased by 27.81
1 Week
466.83
decreased by 2.31
1 Month
574.62
increased by 105.48
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1861 | 4.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1034 | 10.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8694 | 63.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.1008 | -2.93*** |
| γ2 | 0.0891 | 1.89* |
| γ3 | 0.0957 | 3.74*** |
| γ4 | -0.1050 | -5.06*** |
| γ5 | -0.0091 | -0.49 |
| γ6 | 0.0878 | 4.83*** |
| γ7 | -0.1261 | -4.87*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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