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V-Lab

Gecina SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

496.95

increased by 27.81

1 Week

466.83

decreased by 2.31

1 Month

574.62

increased by 105.48

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gecina SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 28, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1861
4.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1034
10.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8694
63.82***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.1008
-2.93***
γ20.0891
1.89*
γ30.0957
3.74***
γ4-0.1050
-5.06***
γ5-0.0091
-0.49
γ60.0878
4.83***
γ7-0.1261
-4.87***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days