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V-Lab

Gecina SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

737.55

increased by 12.06

1 Week

755.41

increased by 29.92

1 Month

723.91

decreased by 1.58

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gecina SA ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 28, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 60% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.6097
4.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0496
16.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9355
638.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0298
4.94***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days