V-Lab
Equity Residential Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
72.02
increased by 1.69
1 Week
67.86
decreased by 2.47
1 Month
62.74
decreased by 7.59
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 12, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 183 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3910 | 5.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0453 | 11.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9510 | 207.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0237 | -2.10** |
| γ2 | 0.0353 | 2.02** |
| γ3 | -0.0046 | -0.36 |
| γ4 | -0.0123 | -0.76 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
183 days
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