Derwent London PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
1,777.33
decreased by 29.97
1 Week
1,830.32
increased by 23.02
1 Month
1,847.55
increased by 40.25
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 03:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0520 | 3.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0194 | 2.44** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9562 | 42.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0691 | 0.74 |
| γ2 | -0.2466 | -2.03** |
| γ3 | 0.4371 | 5.98*** |
| γ4 | -0.4168 | -8.39*** |
| γ5 | 0.2000 | 5.72*** |
| γ6 | -0.0496 | -1.64 |
| γ7 | 0.0603 | 2.06** |
| γ8 | -0.0383 | -1.31 |
| γ9 | -0.1431 | -3.33*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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