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V-Lab

Derwent London PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

1,846.98

decreased by 5.58

1 Week

1,831.98

decreased by 20.58

1 Month

1,834.93

decreased by 17.63

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Derwent London PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 9, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.0443
3.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0194
2.45**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9563
42.95***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0670
0.71
γ2-0.2432
-2.00**
γ30.4349
5.96***
γ4-0.4160
-8.40***
γ50.2004
5.75***
γ6-0.0502
-1.66*
γ70.0612
2.10**
γ8-0.0415
-1.43
γ9-0.1363
-3.32***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days