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V-Lab

Derwent London PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

1,777.33

decreased by 29.97

1 Week

1,830.32

increased by 23.02

1 Month

1,847.55

increased by 40.25

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 03:39 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Derwent London PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 9, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.0520
3.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0194
2.44**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9562
42.62***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0691
0.74
γ2-0.2466
-2.03**
γ30.4371
5.98***
γ4-0.4168
-8.39***
γ50.2000
5.72***
γ6-0.0496
-1.64
γ70.0603
2.06**
γ8-0.0383
-1.31
γ9-0.1431
-3.33***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days