V-Lab
Derwent London PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
1,846.98
decreased by 5.58
1 Week
1,831.98
decreased by 20.58
1 Month
1,834.93
decreased by 17.63
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0443 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0194 | 2.45** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9563 | 42.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0670 | 0.71 |
| γ2 | -0.2432 | -2.00** |
| γ3 | 0.4349 | 5.96*** |
| γ4 | -0.4160 | -8.40*** |
| γ5 | 0.2004 | 5.75*** |
| γ6 | -0.0502 | -1.66* |
| γ7 | 0.0612 | 2.10** |
| γ8 | -0.0415 | -1.43 |
| γ9 | -0.1363 | -3.32*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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