V-Lab
Derwent London PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
1,936.19
increased by 3.84
1 Week
1,917.79
decreased by 14.56
1 Month
1,942.31
increased by 9.96
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1034 trading days (~4.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 123% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4293 | 2.19** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0095 | 9.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9840 | 987.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0117 | 6.14*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1034 days
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