Derwent London PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
1,939.98
decreased by 25.72
1 Week
1,986.79
increased by 21.09
1 Month
2,036.31
increased by 70.61
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 03:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1035 trading days (~4.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 124% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4171 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0095 | 9.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9840 | 986.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0117 | 6.16*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1035 days
Other Derwent London PLC Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on Real Estate