V-Lab
Derwent London PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
2,323.66
decreased by 17.14
1 Week
2,354.07
increased by 13.27
1 Month
2,120.82
decreased by 219.98
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 03:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1036 trading days (~4.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1036 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4713 | 0.56 |
| αARCH | 0.0095 | 2.29** |
| βGARCH | 0.9840 | 247.11*** |
| γleverage | 0.0117 | 1.53 |
0.999
Persistence1036d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4713 | 0.56 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0095 | 2.29** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9840 | 247.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0117 | 1.53 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1036 days
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