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Derwent London PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

2,323.66

decreased by 17.14

1 Week

2,354.07

increased by 13.27

1 Month

2,120.82

decreased by 219.98

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 03:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Derwent London PLC ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 9, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1036 trading days (~4.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1036 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4713
0.56
αARCH0.0095
2.29**
βGARCH0.9840
247.11***
γleverage0.0117
1.53

0.999

Persistence

1036d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4713
0.56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0095
2.29**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9840
247.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0117
1.53

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1036 days