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Derwent London PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

1,939.98

decreased by 25.72

1 Week

1,986.79

increased by 21.09

1 Month

2,036.31

increased by 70.61

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 03:38 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Derwent London PLC ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 9, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1035 trading days (~4.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 124% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4171
2.17**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0095
9.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9840
986.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0117
6.16***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1035 days