NSI NV ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
12,501.45
1 Week
11,517.60
1 Month
11,100.23
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1118 | 0.94 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7488 | 14.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1118 | -0.41 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.59 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0711 | 1.61 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9289 | 26.87*** |
Persistence:
0.805
Half-life:
3 days
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