V-Lab
Altarea SCA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
13,865.78
1 Week
14,296.52
1 Month
13,368.81
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 19, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 38508 trading days (~152.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 261% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1325 | 1.78* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6944 | 25.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3462 | 2.91*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.3595 | 1.22 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9997 | 2.01** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0003 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
38508 days
Other Altarea SCA Analyses
Other ILLIQ-MFMEM Analyses on Real Estate