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Altarea SCA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

13,865.78

increased by 314.78

1 Week

14,296.52

increased by 745.52

1 Month

13,368.81

decreased by 182.19

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of Altarea SCA ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 19, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 38508 trading days (~152.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 261% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1325
1.78*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6944
25.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3462
2.91***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.3595
1.22
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9997
2.01**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0003
0.09

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

38508 days