V-Lab
Watawala Plantations Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
10,528.03
increased by 6,633.13
1 Week
5,754.62
increased by 1,859.72
1 Month
3,227.25
decreased by 667.65
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 48 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.5708 | 2.57** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2525 | 6.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7330 | 22.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.1608 | 1.86* |
| γ2 | -2.3779 | -2.47** |
| γ3 | 2.4646 | 4.21*** |
| γ4 | -1.4754 | -2.59*** |
| γ5 | -0.3977 | -0.69 |
| γ6 | 1.4378 | 3.11*** |
| γ7 | -2.0203 | -4.37*** |
| γ8 | 2.0504 | 3.62*** |
| γ9 | -1.1765 | -2.30** |
| γ10 | 0.9799 | 2.15** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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