Vegorama Punjabi Angithi Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
2,622.04
unchanged at 0.00
1 Week
2,757.73
increased by 135.69
1 Month
3,669.38
increased by 1,047.34
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 28, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2665 | 3.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.2136 | 0.20 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -20.4232 | -1.92* |
0.214
Persistence0d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2665 | 3.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2136 | 0.20 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -20.4232 | -1.92* |
Persistence:
0.214
Half-life:
0 days
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