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Volex PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

4,328.40

decreased by 73.83

1 Week

4,721.98

increased by 319.75

1 Month

5,409.10

increased by 1,006.87

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Volex PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2236 trading days (~8.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2236 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2275
2.11**
αARCH0.1655
3.89***
βGARCH0.8342
19.53***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ11.0848
1.30
γ2-7.5913
-1.97**
γ317.4055
1.91*
γ4-15.0044
-1.61
γ51.0871
0.26
γ65.6887
3.76***
γ7-4.5081
-4.95***
γ83.5405
5.09***
γ9-2.4558
-3.69***
γ100.7945
0.96

1.000

Persistence

2236d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2275
2.11**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1655
3.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8342
19.53***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ11.0848
1.30
γ2-7.5913
-1.97**
γ317.4055
1.91*
γ4-15.0044
-1.61
γ51.0871
0.26
γ65.6887
3.76***
γ7-4.5081
-4.95***
γ83.5405
5.09***
γ9-2.4558
-3.69***
γ100.7945
0.96

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2236 days