V-Lab
Volex PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
4,328.40
decreased by 73.83
1 Week
4,721.98
increased by 319.75
1 Month
5,409.10
increased by 1,006.87
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2236 trading days (~8.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2236 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2275 | 2.11** |
| αARCH | 0.1655 | 3.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8342 | 19.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.0848 | 1.30 |
| γ2 | -7.5913 | -1.97** |
| γ3 | 17.4055 | 1.91* |
| γ4 | -15.0044 | -1.61 |
| γ5 | 1.0871 | 0.26 |
| γ6 | 5.6887 | 3.76*** |
| γ7 | -4.5081 | -4.95*** |
| γ8 | 3.5405 | 5.09*** |
| γ9 | -2.4558 | -3.69*** |
| γ10 | 0.7945 | 0.96 |
1.000
Persistence2236d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2275 | 2.11** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1655 | 3.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8342 | 19.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.0848 | 1.30 |
| γ2 | -7.5913 | -1.97** |
| γ3 | 17.4055 | 1.91* |
| γ4 | -15.0044 | -1.61 |
| γ5 | 1.0871 | 0.26 |
| γ6 | 5.6887 | 3.76*** |
| γ7 | -4.5081 | -4.95*** |
| γ8 | 3.5405 | 5.09*** |
| γ9 | -2.4558 | -3.69*** |
| γ10 | 0.7945 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2236 days
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