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Friedrich Vorwerk Group Se Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

7,309.71

decreased by 1,282.43

1 Week

7,062.09

decreased by 1,530.05

1 Month

6,909.10

decreased by 1,683.04

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Friedrich Vorwerk Group Se ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~346573 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5991
0.02
αARCH0.1553
0.00
βGARCH0.8447
0.01
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.7217
0.00

1.000

Persistence

346573d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5991
0.02
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1553
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8447
0.01
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.7217
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

346573 days