V-Lab
Friedrich Vorwerk Group Se Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
7,309.71
decreased by 1,282.43
1 Week
7,062.09
decreased by 1,530.05
1 Month
6,909.10
decreased by 1,683.04
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~346573 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5991 | 0.02 |
| αARCH | 0.1553 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8447 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.7217 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence346573d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5991 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1553 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8447 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.7217 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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