V-Lab
Virtual Galaxy Infotech Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
4,058.73
increased by 30.61
1 Week
3,959.33
decreased by 68.79
1 Month
4,073.10
increased by 44.98
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 19, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8352 | 7.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.0674 | 1.79* |
| βGARCH | 0.8047 | 5.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.5703 | -3.00*** |
0.872
Persistence5d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8352 | 7.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0674 | 1.79* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8047 | 5.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.5703 | -3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.872
Half-life:
5 days
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