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Usmania Glass Sheet Factory Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

9,293.14

decreased by 473.20

1 Week

8,882.73

decreased by 883.61

1 Month

9,172.71

decreased by 593.63

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Usmania Glass Sheet Factory ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 19, 2002 to Aug 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 194 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.9649
2.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3609
8.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6355
15.92***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.2559
5.18***
γ2-0.4562
-5.18***
γ30.6105
4.84***
γ4-0.9341
-3.97***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

194 days