V-Lab
Usmania Glass Sheet Factory Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
9,293.14
decreased by 473.20
1 Week
8,882.73
decreased by 883.61
1 Month
9,172.71
decreased by 593.63
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 2002 to Aug 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 194 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.9649 | 2.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3609 | 8.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6355 | 15.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.2559 | 5.18*** |
| γ2 | -0.4562 | -5.18*** |
| γ3 | 0.6105 | 4.84*** |
| γ4 | -0.9341 | -3.97*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
194 days
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