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UEM Sunrise Bhd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

6,915.15

increased by 1,277.51

1 Week

5,624.87

decreased by 12.77

1 Month

4,143.20

decreased by 1,494.44

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 01:38 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of UEM Sunrise Bhd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 2008 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 14747 trading days (~58.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~14747 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9613
7.17***
αARCH0.1448
12.74***
βGARCH0.8551
75.20***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0461
-3.79***

1.000

Persistence

14747d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9613
7.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1448
12.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8551
75.20***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0461
-3.79***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

14747 days