UEM Sunrise Bhd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
6,915.15
increased by 1,277.51
1 Week
5,624.87
decreased by 12.77
1 Month
4,143.20
decreased by 1,494.44
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 01:38 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2008 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 14747 trading days (~58.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~14747 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9613 | 7.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.1448 | 12.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8551 | 75.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0461 | -3.79*** |
1.000
Persistence14747d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9613 | 7.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1448 | 12.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8551 | 75.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0461 | -3.79*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
14747 days
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