V-Lab
Twfg Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
4,871.11
increased by 207.73
1 Week
4,850.08
increased by 186.70
1 Month
5,305.65
increased by 642.27
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.2654 | 13.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.0772 | 2.29** |
| βGARCH | 0.5954 | 2.55** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1681 | -1.51 |
0.673
Persistence2d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2654 | 13.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0772 | 2.29** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5954 | 2.55** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1681 | -1.51 |
Persistence:
0.673
Half-life:
2 days
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