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V-Lab

Twfg Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

4,871.11

increased by 207.73

1 Week

4,850.08

increased by 186.70

1 Month

5,305.65

increased by 642.27

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Twfg Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 18, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.2654
13.72***
αARCH0.0772
2.29**
βGARCH0.5954
2.55**
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1681
-1.51

0.673

Persistence

2d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2654
13.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0772
2.29**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5954
2.55**
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1681
-1.51

Persistence:

0.673

Half-life:

2 days