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Financiere de Tubize SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

4,027.46

decreased by 129.97

1 Week

4,331.17

increased by 173.74

1 Month

3,860.18

decreased by 297.25

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Financiere de Tubize SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 30, 1994 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.8060
3.11***
αARCH0.1097
10.82***
βGARCH0.8665
62.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0241
0.23
γ20.0733
0.47
γ3-0.4409
-3.56***
γ40.7461
6.72***
γ5-0.7101
-9.94***
γ60.5126
5.96***
γ7-0.2960
-3.48***
γ80.1522
2.10**
γ9-0.1716
-2.32**
γ100.1438
1.38

0.976

Persistence

29d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8060
3.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1097
10.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8665
62.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0241
0.23
γ20.0733
0.47
γ3-0.4409
-3.56***
γ40.7461
6.72***
γ5-0.7101
-9.94***
γ60.5126
5.96***
γ7-0.2960
-3.48***
γ80.1522
2.10**
γ9-0.1716
-2.32**
γ100.1438
1.38

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days