V-Lab
Financiere de Tubize SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
2,904.16
decreased by 211.73
1 Week
2,786.93
decreased by 328.96
1 Month
3,632.56
increased by 516.67
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 05:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 30, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7964 | 3.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.1105 | 10.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8648 | 62.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0231 | 0.22 |
| γ2 | 0.0773 | 0.50 |
| γ3 | -0.4462 | -3.63*** |
| γ4 | 0.7484 | 6.88*** |
| γ5 | -0.7101 | -10.19*** |
| γ6 | 0.5104 | 5.90*** |
| γ7 | -0.2886 | -3.39*** |
| γ8 | 0.1388 | 1.94* |
| γ9 | -0.1465 | -2.03** |
| γ10 | 0.0726 | 0.71 |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7964 | 3.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1105 | 10.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8648 | 62.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0231 | 0.22 |
| γ2 | 0.0773 | 0.50 |
| γ3 | -0.4462 | -3.63*** |
| γ4 | 0.7484 | 6.88*** |
| γ5 | -0.7101 | -10.19*** |
| γ6 | 0.5104 | 5.90*** |
| γ7 | -0.2886 | -3.39*** |
| γ8 | 0.1388 | 1.94* |
| γ9 | -0.1465 | -2.03** |
| γ10 | 0.0726 | 0.71 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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