Financiere de Tubize SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
4,027.46
decreased by 129.97
1 Week
4,331.17
increased by 173.74
1 Month
3,860.18
decreased by 297.25
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 30, 1994 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8060 | 3.11*** |
| αARCH | 0.1097 | 10.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8665 | 62.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0241 | 0.23 |
| γ2 | 0.0733 | 0.47 |
| γ3 | -0.4409 | -3.56*** |
| γ4 | 0.7461 | 6.72*** |
| γ5 | -0.7101 | -9.94*** |
| γ6 | 0.5126 | 5.96*** |
| γ7 | -0.2960 | -3.48*** |
| γ8 | 0.1522 | 2.10** |
| γ9 | -0.1716 | -2.32** |
| γ10 | 0.1438 | 1.38 |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8060 | 3.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1097 | 10.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8665 | 62.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0241 | 0.23 |
| γ2 | 0.0733 | 0.47 |
| γ3 | -0.4409 | -3.56*** |
| γ4 | 0.7461 | 6.72*** |
| γ5 | -0.7101 | -9.94*** |
| γ6 | 0.5126 | 5.96*** |
| γ7 | -0.2960 | -3.48*** |
| γ8 | 0.1522 | 2.10** |
| γ9 | -0.1716 | -2.32** |
| γ10 | 0.1438 | 1.38 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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