V-Lab
Financiere de Tubize SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
3,647.29
decreased by 281.62
1 Week
4,259.76
increased by 330.85
1 Month
3,758.10
decreased by 170.81
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 30, 1994 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7944 | 3.13*** |
| αARCH | 0.1105 | 10.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8648 | 62.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0217 | 0.20 |
| γ2 | 0.0807 | 0.52 |
| γ3 | -0.4499 | -3.65*** |
| γ4 | 0.7510 | 6.94*** |
| γ5 | -0.7116 | -10.23*** |
| γ6 | 0.5111 | 5.80*** |
| γ7 | -0.2875 | -3.33*** |
| γ8 | 0.1373 | 1.90* |
| γ9 | -0.1479 | -2.03** |
| γ10 | 0.0923 | 0.90 |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7944 | 3.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1105 | 10.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8648 | 62.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0217 | 0.20 |
| γ2 | 0.0807 | 0.52 |
| γ3 | -0.4499 | -3.65*** |
| γ4 | 0.7510 | 6.94*** |
| γ5 | -0.7116 | -10.23*** |
| γ6 | 0.5111 | 5.80*** |
| γ7 | -0.2875 | -3.33*** |
| γ8 | 0.1373 | 1.90* |
| γ9 | -0.1479 | -2.03** |
| γ10 | 0.0923 | 0.90 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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