V-Lab
Trisura Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
4,777.12
decreased by 227.43
1 Week
5,347.29
increased by 342.74
1 Month
4,755.55
decreased by 249.00
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 43321 trading days (~171.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0244 | 4.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1086 | 6.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8913 | 51.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0869 | -0.93 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
43321 days
Other Trisura Group Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities