Trf Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
4,789.91
decreased by 680.52
1 Week
5,235.92
decreased by 234.51
1 Month
5,887.44
increased by 417.01
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1997 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9496 | 0.41 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1560 | 0.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8440 | 0.29 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0600 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.1764 | -0.01 |
| γ3 | 0.1883 | 0.10 |
| γ4 | -0.0942 | -0.15 |
| γ5 | 0.0553 | 0.18 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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