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V-Lab

Trf Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

4,789.91

decreased by 680.52

1 Week

5,235.92

decreased by 234.51

1 Month

5,887.44

increased by 417.01

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trf Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 1997 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9496
0.41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1560
0.05
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8440
0.29
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0600
0.00
γ2-0.1764
-0.01
γ30.1883
0.10
γ4-0.0942
-0.15
γ50.0553
0.18

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

138629 days