Trf Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
4,462.09
1 Week
5,017.08
1 Month
5,582.03
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1997 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2689 | 0.17 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5732 | 9.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2689 | -0.08 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.25 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2648 | 0.23 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7353 | 1.94* |
Persistence:
0.708
Half-life:
2 days
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