V-Lab
Tiptree Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
2,748.64
decreased by 123.50
1 Week
2,850.49
decreased by 21.65
1 Month
3,307.33
increased by 435.19
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 3, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 132 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3294 | 1.96** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1601 | 5.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8346 | 27.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.5009 | -3.16*** |
| γ2 | 3.9753 | 5.04*** |
| γ3 | -5.4356 | -8.63*** |
| γ4 | 4.5447 | 10.00*** |
| γ5 | -2.1794 | -5.57*** |
| γ6 | 1.0800 | 2.75*** |
| γ7 | -1.1519 | -2.50** |
| γ8 | 1.3140 | 2.59*** |
| γ9 | -1.0376 | -2.26** |
| γ10 | 0.5167 | 0.82 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
132 days
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