Time Finance PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
25,745.77
increased by 15,648.97
1 Week
13,283.91
increased by 3,187.11
1 Month
12,349.44
increased by 2,252.64
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 03:52 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.0792 | 2.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.2258 | 3.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7038 | 19.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.9124 | -1.60 |
| γ2 | 1.6569 | 1.90* |
| γ3 | -1.4416 | -2.51** |
| γ4 | 1.4457 | 3.19*** |
| γ5 | -1.2720 | -3.89*** |
| γ6 | 1.0945 | 3.29*** |
| γ7 | -0.7790 | -2.20** |
| γ8 | -0.0709 | -0.23 |
| γ9 | 0.3231 | 1.27 |
| γ10 | -0.1081 | -0.26 |
0.930
Persistence9d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0792 | 2.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2258 | 3.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7038 | 19.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.9124 | -1.60 |
| γ2 | 1.6569 | 1.90* |
| γ3 | -1.4416 | -2.51** |
| γ4 | 1.4457 | 3.19*** |
| γ5 | -1.2720 | -3.89*** |
| γ6 | 1.0945 | 3.29*** |
| γ7 | -0.7790 | -2.20** |
| γ8 | -0.0709 | -0.23 |
| γ9 | 0.3231 | 1.27 |
| γ10 | -0.1081 | -0.26 |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
9 days
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