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Time Finance PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

25,745.77

increased by 15,648.97

1 Week

13,283.91

increased by 3,187.11

1 Month

12,349.44

increased by 2,252.64

Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 03:52 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Time Finance PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.0792
2.64***
αARCH0.2258
3.90***
βGARCH0.7038
19.63***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.9124
-1.60
γ21.6569
1.90*
γ3-1.4416
-2.51**
γ41.4457
3.19***
γ5-1.2720
-3.89***
γ61.0945
3.29***
γ7-0.7790
-2.20**
γ8-0.0709
-0.23
γ90.3231
1.27
γ10-0.1081
-0.26

0.930

Persistence

9d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.0792
2.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2258
3.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7038
19.63***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.9124
-1.60
γ21.6569
1.90*
γ3-1.4416
-2.51**
γ41.4457
3.19***
γ5-1.2720
-3.89***
γ61.0945
3.29***
γ7-0.7790
-2.20**
γ8-0.0709
-0.23
γ90.3231
1.27
γ10-0.1081
-0.26

Persistence:

0.930

Half-life:

9 days