How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
ωconst	1.0324	4.75***
αARCH	0.1629	10.37***
βGARCH	0.8294	55.39***

γ₁	-0.2777	-3.87***
γ₂	0.7458	5.47***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
ω const Unconditional variance weight	1.0324	4.75***
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1629	10.37***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8294	55.39***

γ₁	-0.2777	-3.87***
γ₂	0.7458	5.47***

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Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

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