V-Lab
C.N. Transelectrica S.A. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
11,094.82
decreased by 845.98
1 Week
13,237.09
increased by 1,296.29
1 Month
12,343.36
increased by 402.56
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 8, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 53 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6434 | 3.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0955 | 6.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8915 | 52.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.1224 | 0.71 |
| γ2 | -0.5041 | -2.02** |
| γ3 | 0.6923 | 6.33*** |
| γ4 | -0.4433 | -4.16*** |
| γ5 | 0.1555 | 1.47 |
| γ6 | -0.1506 | -1.16 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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