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Thaai Casting Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

8,435.57

increased by 1,107.39

1 Week

7,104.60

decreased by 223.58

1 Month

5,293.19

decreased by 2,034.99

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Thaai Casting Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 23, 2024 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 810 trading days (~3.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~810 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9759
3.67***
αARCH0.1710
5.83***
βGARCH0.8282
28.02***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-1.1901
-1.69*

0.999

Persistence

810d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9759
3.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1710
5.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8282
28.02***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-1.1901
-1.69*

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

810 days