Thaai Casting Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
8,435.57
increased by 1,107.39
1 Week
7,104.60
decreased by 223.58
1 Month
5,293.19
decreased by 2,034.99
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 23, 2024 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 810 trading days (~3.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~810 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9759 | 3.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.1710 | 5.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8282 | 28.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.1901 | -1.69* |
0.999
Persistence810d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9759 | 3.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1710 | 5.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8282 | 28.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.1901 | -1.69* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
810 days
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