V-Lab
Talbros Engineering Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
7,664.55
increased by 997.31
1 Week
6,068.75
decreased by 598.49
1 Month
5,200.63
decreased by 1,466.61
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 18, 2015 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7586 | 2.05** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2175 | 7.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7327 | 28.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -3.2746 | -4.49*** |
| γ2 | 6.3807 | 5.44*** |
| γ3 | -5.6708 | -5.84*** |
| γ4 | 3.0866 | 4.29*** |
| γ5 | -0.0704 | -0.14 |
| γ6 | -0.0567 | -0.14 |
| γ7 | -1.5843 | -3.67*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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