V-Lab
Swarmer Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
7,151.98
decreased by 524.07
1 Week
7,969.83
increased by 293.78
1 Month
5,877.99
decreased by 1,798.06
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2026 to Jul 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0240 | 4.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1587 | 2.37** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7603 | 7.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -15.0911 | -1.26 |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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