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V-Lab

Swarmer Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

7,151.98

decreased by 524.07

1 Week

7,969.83

increased by 293.78

1 Month

5,877.99

decreased by 1,798.06

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Swarmer Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 17, 2026 to Jul 28, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0240
4.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1587
2.37**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7603
7.13***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-15.0911
-1.26

Persistence:

0.919

Half-life:

8 days