V-Lab
Swarmer Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
7,947.80
decreased by 720.62
1 Week
8,388.05
decreased by 280.37
1 Month
5,890.84
decreased by 2,777.58
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2026 to Jul 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.10 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9163 | 54.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1579 | 2.17** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
146 days
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