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V-Lab

Swarmer Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

7,947.80

decreased by 720.62

1 Week

8,388.05

decreased by 280.37

1 Month

5,890.84

decreased by 2,777.58

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Swarmer Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 17, 2026 to Jul 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.10
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9163
54.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1579
2.17**

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

146 days