V-Lab
SSP Group Plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
5,506.07
increased by 510.09
1 Week
5,201.38
increased by 205.40
1 Month
4,539.15
decreased by 456.83
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 151 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~151 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1801 | 5.51*** |
| αARCH | 0.0639 | 8.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9315 | 117.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0035 | 0.42 |
0.995
Persistence151d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1801 | 5.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0639 | 8.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9315 | 117.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0035 | 0.42 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
151 days
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