Service Industries Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
1,424.55
increased by 29.37
1 Week
1,132.41
decreased by 262.77
1 Month
1,234.51
decreased by 160.67
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 1999 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~346573 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7123 | |
| αARCH | 0.1878 | |
| βGARCH | 0.8122 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.0004 | |
| γ2 | -6.0217 | |
| γ3 | 7.5789 | |
| γ4 | -7.3731 | |
| γ5 | 8.1243 | |
| γ6 | -6.6235 | |
| γ7 | 2.3177 | |
| γ8 | 0.6982 | |
| γ9 | -1.2345 | |
| γ10 | 0.0321 |
1.000
Persistence346573d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7123 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1878 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8122 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.0004 | |
| γ2 | -6.0217 | |
| γ3 | 7.5789 | |
| γ4 | -7.3731 | |
| γ5 | 8.1243 | |
| γ6 | -6.6235 | |
| γ7 | 2.3177 | |
| γ8 | 0.6982 | |
| γ9 | -1.2345 | |
| γ10 | 0.0321 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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