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Service Industries Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

1,424.55

increased by 29.37

1 Week

1,132.41

decreased by 262.77

1 Month

1,234.51

decreased by 160.67

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Service Industries Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 1999 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~346573 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7123
αARCH0.1878
βGARCH0.8122
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ12.0004
γ2-6.0217
γ37.5789
γ4-7.3731
γ58.1243
γ6-6.6235
γ72.3177
γ80.6982
γ9-1.2345
γ100.0321

1.000

Persistence

346573d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7123
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1878
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8122
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ12.0004
γ2-6.0217
γ37.5789
γ4-7.3731
γ58.1243
γ6-6.6235
γ72.3177
γ80.6982
γ9-1.2345
γ100.0321

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

346573 days