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ARS Pharmaceuticals Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

4,522.84

decreased by 179.97

1 Week

4,895.62

increased by 192.81

1 Month

4,594.78

decreased by 108.03

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of ARS Pharmaceuticals Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2020 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 5635 trading days (~22.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~5635 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0429
5.89***
αARCH0.0921
8.01***
βGARCH0.9078
79.53***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0670
-0.47

1.000

Persistence

5635d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0429
5.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0921
8.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9078
79.53***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0670
-0.47

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

5635 days