V-Lab
Sonam Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
5,770.33
decreased by 1,862.53
1 Week
7,431.02
decreased by 201.84
1 Month
9,592.65
increased by 1,959.79
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 14, 2018 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0281 | 4.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3265 | 8.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5772 | 12.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -2.6152 | -4.62*** |
| γ2 | 4.3983 | 5.41*** |
| γ3 | -3.6063 | -7.15*** |
| γ4 | 3.2698 | 6.03*** |
| γ5 | -1.9431 | -2.38** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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