V-Lab
Southern Province Cement Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
5,182.41
decreased by 629.25
1 Week
6,009.47
increased by 197.81
1 Month
5,293.16
decreased by 518.50
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2001 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.9693 | 3.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1700 | 9.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7975 | 34.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0646 | 0.41 |
| γ2 | 0.2961 | 1.13 |
| γ3 | -0.7830 | -4.45*** |
| γ4 | 0.7598 | 6.57*** |
| γ5 | -0.5736 | -5.80*** |
| γ6 | 0.3115 | 3.33*** |
| γ7 | 0.0348 | 0.38 |
| γ8 | -0.1968 | -1.79* |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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