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V-Lab

Southern Province Cement Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

5,182.41

decreased by 629.25

1 Week

6,009.47

increased by 197.81

1 Month

5,293.16

decreased by 518.50

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Southern Province Cement Co ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 12, 2001 to Jul 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.9693
3.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1700
9.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7975
34.83***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0646
0.41
γ20.2961
1.13
γ3-0.7830
-4.45***
γ40.7598
6.57***
γ5-0.5736
-5.80***
γ60.3115
3.33***
γ70.0348
0.38
γ8-0.1968
-1.79*

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days