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SUSS MicroTec SE Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

5,282.87

decreased by 622.81

1 Week

5,646.17

decreased by 259.51

1 Month

5,541.08

decreased by 364.60

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 09:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SUSS MicroTec SE ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 19, 1999 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 127 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~127 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4101
5.91***
αARCH0.1199
16.71***
βGARCH0.8746
120.59***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0016
-1.28

0.995

Persistence

127d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4101
5.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1199
16.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8746
120.59***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0016
-1.28

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

127 days