SUSS MicroTec SE Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
5,282.87
decreased by 622.81
1 Week
5,646.17
decreased by 259.51
1 Month
5,541.08
decreased by 364.60
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 09:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 19, 1999 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 127 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~127 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4101 | 5.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.1199 | 16.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8746 | 120.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0016 | -1.28 |
0.995
Persistence127d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4101 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1199 | 16.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8746 | 120.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0016 | -1.28 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
127 days
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