V-Lab
Sixt SE Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
5,687.68
decreased by 673.37
1 Week
5,775.96
decreased by 585.09
1 Month
5,304.28
decreased by 1,056.77
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 359 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~359 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1956 | 4.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.1439 | 8.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8542 | 53.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.3183 | -3.71*** |
| γ2 | 0.5584 | 3.61*** |
| γ3 | -0.3202 | -3.19*** |
| γ4 | 0.0891 | 1.78* |
0.998
Persistence359d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1956 | 4.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1439 | 8.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8542 | 53.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.3183 | -3.71*** |
| γ2 | 0.5584 | 3.61*** |
| γ3 | -0.3202 | -3.19*** |
| γ4 | 0.0891 | 1.78* |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
359 days
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