V-Lab
Sikder Insurance Company Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
2,294.70
increased by 506.68
1 Week
1,240.87
decreased by 547.15
1 Month
1,080.91
decreased by 707.11
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 2024 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 471 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~471 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5172 | 6.32*** |
| αARCH | 0.5515 | 18.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4470 | 14.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.1047 | -4.78*** |
0.999
Persistence471d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5172 | 6.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5515 | 18.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4470 | 14.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.1047 | -4.78*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
471 days
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