Sonha Saigon Joint Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
7,840.42
increased by 4,497.51
1 Week
3,516.22
increased by 173.31
1 Month
2,940.97
decreased by 401.94
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2014 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 227 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0726 | 2.05** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1484 | 6.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8485 | 39.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -6.4417 | -2.21** |
| γ2 | 14.0588 | 2.76*** |
| γ3 | -10.7219 | -3.04*** |
| γ4 | 0.6126 | 0.29 |
| γ5 | 6.2537 | 4.07*** |
| γ6 | -5.4938 | -4.54*** |
| γ7 | 1.8127 | 1.20 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
227 days
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