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V-Lab

Southern Fertilizers JSC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026

1 Day

17,411.37

increased by 13,447.89

1 Week

8,108.43

increased by 4,144.95

1 Month

3,982.65

increased by 19.17

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Southern Fertilizers JSC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2014 to Jun 26, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 57 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.2230
1.42
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3588
7.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6291
17.29***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0363
-0.03
γ2-2.3854
-1.01
γ36.6058
3.37***
γ4-5.5901
-2.88***
γ5-0.4520
-0.22
γ61.3906
1.03
γ74.4613
2.14**
γ8-7.4338
-3.68***
γ95.8178
3.76***
γ10-4.5182
-2.80***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

57 days