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Southern Fertilizers JSC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026

1 Day

2,625.59

increased by 287.73

1 Week

2,417.62

increased by 79.76

1 Month

2,255.96

decreased by 81.90

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Southern Fertilizers JSC ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 1, 2014 to Jun 26, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 16906 trading days (~67.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
1.28
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0075
4.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9901
392.42***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0048
0.76

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

16906 days