V-Lab
Sfd Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
593,469.90
decreased by 73,380.50
1 Week
707,092.64
increased by 40,242.24
1 Month
1,185,669.31
increased by 518,818.91
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 21, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1974 trading days (~7.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5041 | 2.31** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2212 | 7.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7784 | 26.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -2.2223 | -0.87 |
| γ2 | -2.0158 | -0.55 |
| γ3 | 8.2110 | 3.79*** |
| γ4 | -5.3877 | -3.05*** |
| γ5 | 3.8823 | 2.31** |
| γ6 | -5.4303 | -2.59*** |
| γ7 | 5.1713 | 2.16** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1974 days
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