V-Lab
Sfd Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
1,313,433.00
decreased by 276,432.00
1 Week
1,633,348.00
increased by 43,483.00
1 Month
1,411,323.80
decreased by 178,541.20
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 21, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2265 trading days (~9.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4211 | 2.31** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1963 | 6.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8034 | 28.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -2.5396 | -1.42 |
| γ2 | -1.3052 | -0.43 |
| γ3 | 7.1670 | 2.37** |
| γ4 | -0.4983 | -0.11 |
| γ5 | -6.1608 | -1.27 |
| γ6 | 4.3545 | 1.50 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2265 days
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