V-Lab
SeSa S.p.A. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
4,759.55
decreased by 672.29
1 Week
5,420.98
decreased by 10.86
1 Month
5,264.84
decreased by 167.00
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 7, 2011 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7023 | 3.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1780 | 8.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8126 | 41.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -5.3095 | -4.08*** |
| γ2 | 10.7765 | 4.52*** |
| γ3 | -9.1543 | -5.01*** |
| γ4 | 5.3790 | 3.89*** |
| γ5 | -2.7211 | -2.97*** |
| γ6 | 1.8493 | 3.23*** |
| γ7 | -1.2032 | -2.23** |
| γ8 | 0.5209 | 1.00 |
| γ9 | -0.3585 | -0.54 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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