Senseonics Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
8,774.20
increased by 1,085.66
1 Week
7,484.98
decreased by 203.56
1 Month
5,329.31
decreased by 2,359.23
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 2015 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~138629 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3711 | 0.42 |
| αARCH | 0.1967 | 0.08 |
| βGARCH | 0.8033 | 0.31 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0294 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence138629d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3711 | 0.42 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1967 | 0.08 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8033 | 0.31 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0294 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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