Suez Canal Co for Technology Settling Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
9,695.45
decreased by 632.07
1 Week
11,739.96
increased by 1,412.44
1 Month
13,290.38
increased by 2,962.86
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 27, 2006 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6839 | 1.64 |
| αARCH | 0.0992 | 5.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8279 | 19.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 1.4992 | 2.93*** |
| γ2 | -1.6715 | -2.04** |
| γ3 | -0.5004 | -0.75 |
| γ4 | 1.4890 | 2.61*** |
| γ5 | -2.2589 | -3.67*** |
| γ6 | 2.7521 | 3.87*** |
| γ7 | -1.7323 | -2.48** |
| γ8 | 0.0472 | 0.05 |
0.927
Persistence9d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6839 | 1.64 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0992 | 5.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8279 | 19.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 1.4992 | 2.93*** |
| γ2 | -1.6715 | -2.04** |
| γ3 | -0.5004 | -0.75 |
| γ4 | 1.4890 | 2.61*** |
| γ5 | -2.2589 | -3.67*** |
| γ6 | 2.7521 | 3.87*** |
| γ7 | -1.7323 | -2.48** |
| γ8 | 0.0472 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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