V-Lab
Softlogic Capital Plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
6,021.37
increased by 4,509.19
1 Week
2,790.56
increased by 1,278.38
1 Month
2,676.07
increased by 1,163.89
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 13, 2012 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 48 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7400 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1195 | 4.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8661 | 33.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.3418 | -0.86 |
| γ2 | 0.0183 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | 3.6593 | 5.11*** |
| γ4 | -3.9987 | -3.79*** |
| γ5 | 3.0830 | 2.54** |
| γ6 | -2.9645 | -1.96* |
| γ7 | 1.7473 | 0.80 |
| γ8 | 1.2437 | 0.57 |
| γ9 | -1.9486 | -1.24 |
| γ10 | -1.0102 | -0.61 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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