Samart Corp PCL Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
8,847.11
increased by 5,445.56
1 Week
5,381.65
increased by 1,980.10
1 Month
3,060.54
decreased by 341.01
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 1994 to Nov 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 535 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~535 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.4181 | 2.42** |
| αARCH | 0.1746 | 14.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8241 | 65.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0113 | 9.26*** |
0.999
Persistence535d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4181 | 2.42** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1746 | 14.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8241 | 65.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0113 | 9.26*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
535 days
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