V-Lab
Saudi Advanced Industries Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, October 4th, 2026
1 Day
9,751.00
decreased by 1,084.49
1 Week
8,161.58
decreased by 2,673.91
1 Month
4,573.81
decreased by 6,261.68
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 2005 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~231049 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2949 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.1925 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8075 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -1.0750 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 1.7184 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -1.0440 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 0.4600 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 0.2268 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence231049d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2949 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1925 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8075 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -1.0750 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 1.7184 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -1.0440 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 0.4600 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 0.2268 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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