V-Lab
SAB Events & Governance NOW Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
37,450,770.00
increased by 16,982,600.00
1 Week
24,908,938.00
increased by 4,440,768.00
1 Month
13,992,543.09
decreased by 6,475,626.91
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2706 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7843 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2156 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -6.4378 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 19.6201 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -25.9853 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 13.8152 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 3.2735 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -14.1313 | -0.01 |
| γ7 | 22.6007 | 0.01 |
| γ8 | -23.8244 | -0.01 |
| γ9 | 24.0699 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
69314 days
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