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SAB Events & Governance NOW Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

37,450,770.00

increased by 16,982,600.00

1 Week

24,908,938.00

increased by 4,440,768.00

1 Month

13,992,543.09

decreased by 6,475,626.91

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of SAB Events & Governance NOW ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2706
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7843
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2156
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-6.4378
0.00
γ219.6201
0.00
γ3-25.9853
0.00
γ413.8152
0.00
γ53.2735
0.00
γ6-14.1313
-0.01
γ722.6007
0.01
γ8-23.8244
-0.01
γ924.0699
0.01

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

69314 days