SMA Solar Technology AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
4,983.35
decreased by 7.34
1 Week
4,986.19
decreased by 4.50
1 Month
5,281.80
increased by 291.11
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 27, 2008 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 213 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~213 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1628 | 6.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.0895 | 13.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9072 | 134.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0117 | -2.41** |
0.997
Persistence213d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1628 | 6.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0895 | 13.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9072 | 134.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0117 | -2.41** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
213 days
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