V-Lab
Riskified Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
5,762.11
increased by 1,345.79
1 Week
4,389.54
decreased by 26.78
1 Month
3,543.36
decreased by 872.96
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 29, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 127 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0949 | 8.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0652 | 5.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9294 | 75.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1362 | -2.26** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
127 days
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