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Riskified Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

5,381.38

increased by 868.78

1 Week

4,465.14

decreased by 47.46

1 Month

3,650.55

decreased by 862.05

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Riskified Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 29, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 68% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.70
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0457
9.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9387
369.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0311
3.94***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days